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A LEADING CAUSE?

Marnie, a graduate student in Behavioural Sciences, uses a well validated rating scale to assess the prevalence of antisocial behaviour amongst Grade 3 students in all 5 elementary schools in the city. She finds that 27 out of 246 can be labelled "antisocial". Closer attention to the data shows that 7 out of the 27 students come from the same private school (The Vanguard).

Millicent, who is Marnie's roommate, suggests that she approach the problem epidemiologically by listing the school as a "risk factor" for the production of antisocial behaviour. She shows Marnie how to tabulate the data to estimate an odds-ratio.

	Antisocial behaviour	Normal behaviour
The Vanguard	7	18
All other schools	20	201

The estimated odds-ratio is large enough to cause concern. At Millicent's urging, Marnie decides to explore the issues further.

She finds that the school is a private one, run by a Society dedicated to improving the lot of women. Many of the mothers who send their children to the school are adamant about self-reliance. To that end they not only promote self-medications with herbals rather than prescription drugs, but also advocate that women undertake training in using firearms. A large number of them are practising artists and craftspeople. Marnie is also intrigued to find that 5 of the 7 students on her list live in the same large house -- an older building which had been extensively remodelled several years ago by the parents themselves. The house not only has several pottery studios but also an attached indoor shooting range.
 

Comments:

Another problem used in my Social Pharmacology course. The format is similar to that used in A Rash to Judgement, A Not-so-Hairy Tale. Here attributable risk can be assessed but also students were expected to tease out potential causes. A number of clues were given pointing to lead poisoning, though many other explanations were possible.